Last Time The Dow Rose 14 Days In A Row Was Back In 1897

Good morning.

Another day, another Dow gain … making it 12 sessions in a row … and when this type of streak occurs (on the positive side) it is fun to find one piece of information that makes for fun water cooler talk.

So here goes: According to Bespoke, the last time the Dow rose 14 days in a row was back in 1897. Hearing this, I wondered how many people on the planet were alive at the time. The answer? Nobody! That’s right … highlighting how rarified the air we are breathing in right now is … not one single person on the planet was alive when the Dow last rose 14 straight days! That’s right … the oldest … reported by CNN … is Emma Morano of Italy at 117 years old. Just 2 more days to go and … well … let’s keep our fingers crossed … for both the Dow and for Emma.

What could keep us from reaching such a mark? Many things … including just random market movement.

But focus today could be on two things … the Fed rate rise in March (now implied by futures to be 50/50) … and tonight’s speech by President Trump before Congress.

In review of interesting stories for today a NY Daily News article caught my nervous attention (included below) as a fund manager who “famously predicted the 2009 recession” seemed to claim we may be headed for a 60% decline. So not only did I review his past “other” calls (such as a complete market collapse in 2014) but I took a look at his “Strategic Growth” mutual fund … and even with the roaring bull market we’ve experienced in the last few years … notice that this fund has a negative return every years since 2011 (when it was up just over a whopping 1%). That is definitely a feat pretty hard to accomplish! I just wish market reporters would look at the whole story before putting people on pedestals – which appear, at times, to be made up of little more than cardboard.

So tonight we look forward to details on how the administration hopes to achieve its lofty objectives …

… and, hopefully, unlike any close review of Emma Morano, mentioned before, who is the oldest person in the world … analysts and economists alike will look closely … to see if the proposals put forward tonight before Congress and the American public … have any teeth.

Have a great day.

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA
Vice President
Emerald Asset Management
610 Freedom Business Center Drive
King of Prussia, PA 19406
(610) 337-9230 ext. 6
wit@teamemerald.com

A Quick Look at the News
February 28, 2017

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA | wit@teamemerald.com

… as of 11:22 AM today …

The GDP number released this morning continued to imply a slow, steady growth to the U.S. economy … but for the new administration (and some investors) … the rate of growth is not satisfactory at all (Bloomberg)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-28/u-s-growth-pace-unrevised-as-consumption-investment-diverge

… but what does the market hold? One fund manager sees volatility … but, to be fair, it is always safe to forecast volatility for if you are wrong … no one really remembers (NYDailyNews)

http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/buckle-investors-headed-real-volatility-article-1.2983945

… and those 10-percent historical market returns? Unless earning pick up by quite a bit (with dividends to follow) some feel forecasts (and hope) should be held in check (MarketWatch)

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/you-can-kiss-10-stock-returns-goodbye-2017-02-28

One of the things I find amazing is the relatively low productivity numbers in the face of automation. Here is one machine that replaces 360,000 hours of legal work. That’s a lot of billable hours (Bloomberg)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-28/jpmorgan-marshals-an-army-of-developers-to-automate-high-finance

… but a group of retirees might soon be hiring lawyers (real ones, not machines) to look into their annual pension … for a severe cut from what was expected (or already spent) could destroy a retirement dream (NYDailyNews)

http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/n-y-retirees-struggle-survive-pension-fund-bottoms-article-1.2982399

Many wonder what the future will hold in terms of rapid growth. I personally think we should keep our eyes on Virtual and Augmented Reality … as technology advancement here is seeing rapid improvement (CNET)

https://www.cnet.com/news/augmented-virtual-reality-earning-13-billion-2017-pokemon-go-htc-samsung-gear-daydream/

Hey … where are you going on vacation this year? Some beach? Some city? The countryside? How boring. Soon … very soon … you can go to the Moon (MarketWatch)

http://money.cnn.com/2017/02/27/technology/spacex-moon-tourism/index.html

How is this for incentive to get your kids to clean their room? Simply remind them that their stay in your house might not be a temporary thing … as some are finding they will be in their parent’s home … forever (MarketWatch)

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-millennials-may-never-get-to-live-alone-2017-02-23

… and remember that one child policy in China? Um … the demographics don’t work anymore … for more kids are needed and many governments are finding an aging population could hurt economic growth (TheGuardian)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/28/china-considers-paying-couples-to-have-a-second-child

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